The uncertainty of the tonal basis of the opening seems to dissipate by bars 4-5, with a secure cadence to Bb. Everything thereafter, however, is in F, including the close. Thus the possible Bb: ^3 at the beginning turns out to be F: ^6. Because the tonal design is reminiscent of the first strain of many small binary forms -- as Bb: I-V -- Distler succeeds in balancing the two tonalities beautifully.
Continuation of the analysis graph: